Analytical Methodology

The 100-Point Bankability Framework V3.2

The analytical instrument that converts a Nigeria infrastructure policy signal into a scored bankability verdict.

Category structure published here. Sub-criteria weights are proprietary.

What the Framework is

The Bankability Framework is the analytical instrument that converts a Nigeria infrastructure policy signal into a scored bankability verdict. Every Rapid Assessment Plus and every Policy Convergence Intelligence Signal Brief is scored against V3.2. The category structure is published here. The sub-criteria weights are not.

Framework Architecture

5 core categories (75 points) plus 3 signal amplifiers (25 points).

CategoryPointsWhat it measures
C1 — Policy Alignment & Regulatory Readiness20Legislative convergence, regulatory stability, policy sequencing
C2 — Commercial Viability20Revenue model logic, sector-appropriate IRR benchmark, demand evidence
C3 — DFI Readiness15DFI eligibility criteria, environmental/social baseline, standard conditions
C4 — Implementation Track Record15Comparable project precedent, implementation capacity, contractor availability
C5 — Political Economy & Stakeholder Alignment5Executive priority, agency coordination, opposition mapping
Core categories total75
A1 — Policy Convergence Amplifier10Multi-domain signal intersection (4+ domains = maximum)
A2 — Presidential/Executive Priority10Explicit head-of-government commitment + ministerial follow-through
A3 — DFI Capital Alignment5Active DFI mandate with published Nigeria commitment
Amplifiers total25
Total100

Score Thresholds

Four verdict tiers determine the intelligence output and recommended next action.

60–100
Bankable

RA+ recommended. Opportunity window open for origination or pre-positioning.

40–59
Conditional

Specific criteria improvements required before the project is bankable.

20–39
Pre-bankable

Monitor. Not actionable at present. Revisit on policy or fiscal trigger.

Below 20
Noise

Archive. Insufficient convergence for active intelligence tracking.

Binary Gates

Two binary gates are applied before any score is finalised.

ESG Gate — C3 sub-criterion

Environmental / Social Baseline

A zero score on the environmental/social baseline sub-criterion within C3 caps the project at a maximum of 49/100, regardless of all other scores. No exceptions.

Commercial Gate — C2 sub-criterion

Revenue Model Viability

A zero score on the revenue model viability sub-criterion within C2 caps the project at 54/100. Intelliblock does not certify projects with no viable commercial model as bankable.

Sector IRR Bands

DFI-acceptable internal rate of return ranges applied in C2 commercial viability scoring.

SectorDFI-acceptable IRR range
Power generation and transmission12–18%
Transport (road, rail, ports)8–14%
Water and sanitation6–12%
Telecoms and digital infrastructure15–22%
Industrial zones and SEZs10–16%
Urban infrastructure (housing, healthcare)8–13%

Worked Example

Retroactive score: Bakassi Deep Water Port Complex. Applied against V3.2 as at signal date, before outcomes were known.

Bakassi Deep Water Port Complex — Nigeria80/100
CategoryScoreKey finding
C1 — Policy Alignment16/20Presidential priority confirmed. Cross River State PPP agency active.
C2 — Commercial Viability16/20West African trade corridor demand validated. Port IRR benchmark applied.
C3 — DFI Readiness13/15AfDB and Afreximbank active Nigeria mandates. ESIA baseline required.
C4 — Implementation Track Record11/15Regional port precedent exists (Lekki). Contractor landscape thinner for deep-water.
C5 — Political Economy4/5Presidential endorsement explicit. Cross River State alignment confirmed.
A1 — Convergence8/103-domain convergence: policy + DFI + fiscal signals active.
A2 — Presidential Priority8/10Explicit presidential commitment. Ministerial follow-through confirmed.
A3 — DFI Alignment4/5Afreximbank pre-mandate confirmation received.
Total80/100Tier 1 — Bankable
Verdict: Bankable. Recommend RA+ for full due diligence. Opportunity window: 12 to 18 months before advisory mandate market enters.

Have a project to score?

A Rapid Assessment Plus applies the full V3.2 Framework to your project with category-level evidence in 5 to 7 working days.