Analytical Methodology
The 100-Point Bankability Framework V3.2
The analytical instrument that converts a Nigeria infrastructure policy signal into a scored bankability verdict.
Category structure published here. Sub-criteria weights are proprietary.
What the Framework is
The Bankability Framework is the analytical instrument that converts a Nigeria infrastructure policy signal into a scored bankability verdict. Every Rapid Assessment Plus and every Policy Convergence Intelligence Signal Brief is scored against V3.2. The category structure is published here. The sub-criteria weights are not.
Framework Architecture
5 core categories (75 points) plus 3 signal amplifiers (25 points).
| Category | Points | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| C1 — Policy Alignment & Regulatory Readiness | 20 | Legislative convergence, regulatory stability, policy sequencing |
| C2 — Commercial Viability | 20 | Revenue model logic, sector-appropriate IRR benchmark, demand evidence |
| C3 — DFI Readiness | 15 | DFI eligibility criteria, environmental/social baseline, standard conditions |
| C4 — Implementation Track Record | 15 | Comparable project precedent, implementation capacity, contractor availability |
| C5 — Political Economy & Stakeholder Alignment | 5 | Executive priority, agency coordination, opposition mapping |
| Core categories total | 75 | |
| A1 — Policy Convergence Amplifier | 10 | Multi-domain signal intersection (4+ domains = maximum) |
| A2 — Presidential/Executive Priority | 10 | Explicit head-of-government commitment + ministerial follow-through |
| A3 — DFI Capital Alignment | 5 | Active DFI mandate with published Nigeria commitment |
| Amplifiers total | 25 | |
| Total | 100 |
Score Thresholds
Four verdict tiers determine the intelligence output and recommended next action.
RA+ recommended. Opportunity window open for origination or pre-positioning.
Specific criteria improvements required before the project is bankable.
Monitor. Not actionable at present. Revisit on policy or fiscal trigger.
Archive. Insufficient convergence for active intelligence tracking.
Binary Gates
Two binary gates are applied before any score is finalised.
ESG Gate — C3 sub-criterion
Environmental / Social Baseline
A zero score on the environmental/social baseline sub-criterion within C3 caps the project at a maximum of 49/100, regardless of all other scores. No exceptions.
Commercial Gate — C2 sub-criterion
Revenue Model Viability
A zero score on the revenue model viability sub-criterion within C2 caps the project at 54/100. Intelliblock does not certify projects with no viable commercial model as bankable.
Sector IRR Bands
DFI-acceptable internal rate of return ranges applied in C2 commercial viability scoring.
| Sector | DFI-acceptable IRR range |
|---|---|
| Power generation and transmission | 12–18% |
| Transport (road, rail, ports) | 8–14% |
| Water and sanitation | 6–12% |
| Telecoms and digital infrastructure | 15–22% |
| Industrial zones and SEZs | 10–16% |
| Urban infrastructure (housing, healthcare) | 8–13% |
Worked Example
Retroactive score: Bakassi Deep Water Port Complex. Applied against V3.2 as at signal date, before outcomes were known.
| Category | Score | Key finding |
|---|---|---|
| C1 — Policy Alignment | 16/20 | Presidential priority confirmed. Cross River State PPP agency active. |
| C2 — Commercial Viability | 16/20 | West African trade corridor demand validated. Port IRR benchmark applied. |
| C3 — DFI Readiness | 13/15 | AfDB and Afreximbank active Nigeria mandates. ESIA baseline required. |
| C4 — Implementation Track Record | 11/15 | Regional port precedent exists (Lekki). Contractor landscape thinner for deep-water. |
| C5 — Political Economy | 4/5 | Presidential endorsement explicit. Cross River State alignment confirmed. |
| A1 — Convergence | 8/10 | 3-domain convergence: policy + DFI + fiscal signals active. |
| A2 — Presidential Priority | 8/10 | Explicit presidential commitment. Ministerial follow-through confirmed. |
| A3 — DFI Alignment | 4/5 | Afreximbank pre-mandate confirmation received. |
| Total | 80/100 | Tier 1 — Bankable |
Have a project to score?
A Rapid Assessment Plus applies the full V3.2 Framework to your project with category-level evidence in 5 to 7 working days.