Timing Thesis
Intelligence
Nigeria Infrastructure Bankability Score Archive
5 retrospective scores validated against known outcomes. 4 of 5 directionally correct. Gate 1: passed.
See the methodology in action
Read a complete Signal Brief
A full sample bankability assessment — AFC/SMDF $1.3B Alumina Refinery, Nigeria, scored 80/100. Signal Brief + Scoring Card, ungated.
Read the sample brief →Bankability Score Archive — Gate 1
All scores are retrospective — applied as at the signal date, before outcomes were known. Framework version at scoring: V3.2.
| Project | Sector | Score | Effective Tier | Outcome | Directional |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azura-Edo IPP | Energy | 91/100 | Tier 1 — Bankable | Financial close achieved | Correct |
| Lekki Deep Sea Port | Transport | 80/100 | Tier 1 — Bankable | Financial close achieved | Correct |
| Lagos–Ibadan Standard Gauge Railway | Transport | 63 raw / Tier 3 eff. | Tier 3 — Conditional gate | Completed — sovereign bilateral | Nuanced |
| Dangote Fertiliser Complex | Industrial | 91/100 | Tier 1 — Bankable | Commissioned and operational | Correct |
| Mambilla Hydropower | Energy | 21/100 | Weak Signal — Pre-bankable | Stalled — no financial close | Correct |
Scores are retrospective — applied as at signal date, before outcomes were known. Gate 1 directional accuracy: 80–100%. The Lagos–Ibadan SGR result (sovereign bilateral completion) is classified as nuanced: the project completed via a route that bypasses standard DFI bankability criteria. Framework version at scoring: V3.2. Current framework: V3.2.
Active pipeline output
Live Signal Brief Archive
Every brief scored ≥60/100 by the HEARTBEAT pipeline — updated daily. Titles and scores are public. Full text is gated.
View live archive →Intelligence Output — Published Articles
Analysis published under the Intelliblock intelligence standard. Full text available via subscription access.
Bankability Standard
The Azura Model: What Nigeria's Most Successful Infrastructure Finance Tells Us About What Comes Next
Read →Policy Signal
Presidential Priority Is Not Bankability: Why Nigeria's Most Visible Projects Often Score Below 60
Read →Bankability Standard
The ESG Gate: Why Environmental Baseline Is the Single Most Disqualifying Criterion in DFI Infrastructure Finance
Read →Nigeria Lens
Five Projects, Five Lessons from Nigeria's Infrastructure Finance Record
Read →Bankability Standard
The Infrapreneur Checklist: 12 Questions Before You Present to a DFI
Read →Nigeria Lens
Nigeria's Blue Economy Infrastructure: Ports, Fisheries, and the Coastal Logistics Opportunity
Read →Timing Thesis
Policy Convergence: Why the Projects That Close Are Not the Projects That Were Announced
Read →Intelligence Architecture
The Intelligence Architecture Behind Intelliblock: How a Governed Knowledge Corpus Turns Policy Noise into Bankable Signals
Read →Full articles available to Policy Convergence Intelligence subscribers and on request. Links above open the contact page.
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